After the IMF:
Côte d'Ivoire faces the market

End of programme, change of regime

On 24 June 2026, the IMF Executive Board completed the sixth and final reviews of the 2023 arrangements with Côte d'Ivoire under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), as well as the fifth review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. A final disbursement of about USD 832.8 million was approved. Above all, the Fund reclassified the country as being at "low risk" of debt distress, for both its external debt and its total public debt.

This reclassification is the key news. For three years, the programme served as an anchor: quantified targets, half-yearly reviews, an outside view on every budget decision. That anchor is gone. The discipline it imposed must now come from within, and the markets will be the new judges.

The 2027 budget, a first test without a safety net

The second ordinary session of the National Assembly, which opened on 1 October 2026, is examining a draft 2027 budget of 18,466.1 billion FCFA, against 17,350.2 billion in 2026, an increase of 6.4%. The 2027-2029 multi-year programming presented in June assumes average growth of 6.8%.

The starting point is solid but less supportive than in 2025. The IMF estimates growth at 6.5% in 2025 and projects 6.0% in 2026, held back by the war in the Middle East: the current account deficit would widen from 0.7% to 2.2% of GDP. In April, the World Bank expected an average Brent price of USD 86 in 2026, against USD 69 in 2025, and a 31% rise in fertiliser prices. In this context, the 6.8% target requires a clear acceleration in investment, particularly private investment.

The State, the region's largest borrower

By 20 July 2026, Côte d'Ivoire had raised 3,294 billion FCFA on the regional government securities market, or 39.5% of all issuance by the eight member states of the Union. It remains by far the largest issuer in the WAEMU.

This position has a downside for companies. Local banks arbitrate between well-rated government securities and SME loans, which are more costly to analyse and monitor. As long as the State absorbs such a large share of regional savings, credit to the mid-market remains expensive: this is one of the explanations for the 101 basis point gap between the average SME rate and that of large companies, which we analysed in a previous note.

The reclassification to low risk should, over time, reduce the cost of sovereign debt and the State's pressure on regional liquidity. It is a necessary condition for easier credit to companies, not a sufficient one.

The 2026-2030 NDP: a plan that relies on the private sector

The 2026-2030 National Development Plan provides for nearly 115,000 billion FCFA of investment over five years, more than 70% of it expected from the private sector. In other words, the plan's success depends less on the State's capacity to spend than on its capacity to make projects financeable by others.

Three consequences for economic actors:

• PPPs become the central channel. Energy, transport, water, health: a growing share of projects will go through concessions and public-private partnerships. Their success depends on the quality of the structuring (risk allocation, guarantees, financing structure) far more than on the amount announced.
• Development finance institutions remain decisive. Without an IMF programme, their own risk analyses will weigh more heavily on the terms they offer Ivorian projects.
• Mid-market subcontractors carry the cash risk. SMEs and mid-sized companies working on large projects often finance the gap between execution and payment. Without structured working capital financing, a growing order book can weaken their cash position.

Financial implications

These developments read differently depending on where you stand. Four categories of actors are directly concerned.

What we will be watching

Our reading

Exiting the programme is good news, and the low-risk reclassification confirms it. But it changes the nature of the exercise: fiscal credibility will no longer be proven before the IMF, but before investors, at every issue. For companies, the question is not so much what the State will spend in 2027 as the share of regional savings it will leave to the private sector, and the quality of the projects it will make financeable.