A cost shock, not a demand shock
The war in the Middle East has changed the cost landscape. The World Bank expects an average Brent price of USD 86 in 2026, against USD 69 in 2025, and a 31% rise in fertiliser prices. For Côte d'Ivoire, the IMF projects a current account deficit of 2.2% of GDP in 2026, against 0.7% in 2025, and explicitly attributes this deterioration to the conflict and worsening terms of trade.
The BCEAO, for its part, expects inflation of 1.0% in the Union in 2026, after 0.0% in 2025, and names its main cause: higher transport prices, linked to the increase in petroleum product prices. Demand remains firm (Union growth estimated at 6.0% in the second quarter): the shock comes through costs.
Three income statement lines exposed
- Transport and logistics. The first line hit for distribution, agribusiness and construction: sourcing, delivery, collection.
- Energy. Generators, industrial processes, cold chain: a line often underestimated in SME budgets.
- Inputs. Fertilisers and crop protection products for agriculture; packaging and imported materials for industry.
2025: actual. 2026: World Bank forecast, April 2026.
The hidden effect: working capital
Rising costs do not only weigh on margins. At constant volumes, they increase the value of the inventory to build and the purchases to pre-finance. A company that maintains its volumes in 2027 will therefore need more cash to run its operating cycle. If its short-term credit lines were sized on 2025 prices, cash strain can appear even while business is doing well.
"A budget built on a single cost scenario is not a prudent budget: it is a bet."
Edmond'S & Company — ResearchFinancial implications
| Decision | What we recommend |
|---|---|
| Building the 2027 budget | Two cost scenarios: central and adverse (prolonged rise in energy and transport). Investment and hiring decisions are tested against the second. |
| Working capital financing | Size short-term lines on the adverse scenario and negotiate them now, before the strain appears. |
| Commercial policy | Identify contracts without indexation clauses and renegotiate them; include a price review in new contracts. |
| Steering | Track three indicators monthly: transport cost as a share of revenue, gross margin, inventory turnover. |
Our reading
The context does not call into question demand growth in 2027; it calls into question the margins and cash of those who budget on yesterday's costs. A two-scenario budget costs a few days of work; a credit line negotiated in a hurry costs much more.
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026
World Bank — Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026
IMF — Press Release No. 26/132, staff-level agreement on the sixth review, 30 April 2026
BCEAO — Monetary Policy Committee of 9 September 2026